Analysis: The US National Security Strategy
Analysis of the 2025 US National Security Strategy: Western Hemisphere priorities, conditional NATO support, and major shifts in defence, energy, and industrial policy.
Executive summary
The newly released US National Security Strategy (NSS) marks a sharp reorientation of American priorities, elevating the Western Hemisphere and Asia while adopting a notably harsher tone towards Europe. Although the strategy has caused consternation among some allies, it also signals significant opportunities across defence, energy, critical minerals, supply chains and emerging technologies.
Overview
President Trump’s NSS critiques post-Cold War foreign policy for pursuing “domination of the entire world” and making “misguided and destructive bets on globalism and so-called free trade”. The document argues these choices weakened the US industrial base, overextended national resources and constrained sovereignty through international institutions.
The NSS consolidates security, economic and cultural goals into a single “America First” agenda. It prioritises maintaining the world’s most powerful military, securing borders and transport networks, and treating mass migration, drug trafficking, predatory trade practices and “cultural subversion” as direct threats to national security.
Long-term US power is tied to reindustrialisation, energy dominance, hardened supply chains and leadership in AI, biotech and quantum. The strategy is unapologetic about American power but rejects the idea of the US as a “global policeman”, emphasising instead the role of economic weight, financial markets, defence sales and access to capital in shaping the choices of other states.
Regional priorities
Western Hemisphere
The Western Hemisphere is the NSS’s top regional priority. The US commits to maintaining political, economic and military pre-eminence in the Americas, stopping mass migration and drug trafficking, preventing hostile foreign ownership of key assets (including ports and critical minerals) and expanding security cooperation and basing to control key transit routes.
Indo-Pacific
The Indo-Pacific remains a critical economic and military theatre. Priorities include securing sea lanes, diversifying supply chains and reducing dependence on China. Taiwan is described as strategically vital, with deterrence through overmatch preferred. Japan and South Korea are urged to increase defence spending.
Europe
Europe is depicted as a region facing “civilisational erasure” driven by migration, low birth rates, EU integration and free speech restrictions. The US signals it will “cultivate resistance” to Europe’s current trajectory and view the rise of “patriotic parties” as a cause for “great optimism”. Support for NATO is confirmed but contingent on sharply increased European defence spending and limiting further alliance enlargement.
Middle East
The US intends to avoid large-scale interventions while preventing hostile actors from dominating Gulf energy resources and maritime chokepoints. Expanding the Abraham Accords and leveraging the Gaza ceasefire are priorities.
Africa
Africa is viewed through the lens of resources and great-power competition. The US will pursue access to critical minerals and infrastructure, using development finance and investment to secure favourable terms. Energy and minerals are immediate focal points, with US nuclear and LNG technology positioned for advantage.
Russia
Russia is treated less as an adversary. The NSS signals interest in negotiating an end to the Ukraine war and re-establishing strategic stability with Moscow, enabling Washington to focus on the Western Hemisphere and Asia.
Industrial base as a national power
The NSS frames the US economy as “the bedrock of the American way of life”. It reaffirms the ambition to remain “the world’s most scientifically and technologically advanced and innovative country”, with US technology and standards driving global progress.
Industrial strength becomes the top economic priority. National mobilisation is envisioned to scale munitions, accelerate advanced systems, reshore defence supply chains and intensify control of technology flows to rivals through export controls, sanctions and investment screening.
Critical minerals receive particular focus; the US “must never be dependent on any outside power” for materials essential to defence or the economy. Supply security will rely on domestic production, allied sourcing and stricter investment screening.
Energy is cast as strategic infrastructure. Restoring dominance in oil, gas, coal and nuclear is described as essential to reindustrialisation and to the resilience of allies. The NSS pointedly rejects “disastrous climate change and Net Zero ideologies”, making a clear divergence from EU policy.
Opportunities across defence and industry
The NSS represents the most significant doctrinal shift since the Bush Doctrine. In the near term, it will drive intensified actions in the Caribbean and along the southern border, more conditional aid to Europe and Ukraine, and greater reliance on tariffs and sanctions. Longer term, it indicates a global military rebalancing, with Europe and the Middle East likely to see reduced US forces.
Western defence and industrial firms will benefit from sustained demand for equipment, technologies and supply-chain modernisation. The commitment to building “the world’s most robust industrial base” and reducing reliance on adversarial suppliers supports reshoring and stockpile-replenishment programmes. Naval procurement in particular is set for expansion as the Pentagon pursues a surface fleet rising from 296 vessels today to a potential peak of 381 by early 2042.
In Europe, conditional support for NATO tied to dramatically higher defence spending will accelerate investment in air and missile defence, long-range fires, unmanned systems, C4ISR and resilience against disinformation.
At the Reagan National Defense Forum, Secretary of War Pete Hegseth previewed a National Defense Strategy aligned with the NSS: defending the homeland, deterring China through strength, increasing burden-sharing, and “supercharging” the defence industrial base. He called for shifting procurement away from a prime-contractor-dominated model toward a more dynamic vendor environment – creating openings for SMEs and non-traditional suppliers.
